Contingency in Politics

            Just a few days before October 9^th, the deadline to register to vote in the November 2012 election, I wondered why I was being bombarded by students on campus asking me to sign up to vote.  If I said “No,” when they asked me if I have registered to vote yet, I was asked immediately to do so.  Every few hundred feet I went, a new student holding a clip board had asked me if I had signed up to vote yet.  I wondered why they were being so adamant about getting everyone they could to sign up to vote. 

            Why did they want me to vote so bad?  When thinking about this question, I realized that there is just one answer in just one word.  Contingency.  Contingency was the reason that I was being pushed to vote. 

In lecture, we discussed that a phenomenon or an event is contingent if it could have happened otherwise.  With the outcome of the election being contingent, it was important to get as many voters as possible, especially this year.

            Contingency plays a very important role in elections and this year it has an even greater impact.  Usually, Michigan is said to be more of a democratic state.  But this year, we have seen otherwise.  Recently, in some of the first state level polls, they have shown that Michigan has moved from a “lean-Obama state to a swing state.”  By definition, a swing state is “a state of the United States in which the Democratic and Republican candidates both have a good chance of winning.”  In this sense, no single candidate or party has overwhelming support in securing that state’s electoral college votes.  I now understood why my vote would be so important.  With the outcome of elections being contingent, my vote would actually matter.

            Contingency has only come into play recently in this election in Michigan.  After the debate between Obama and Romney, polls were released that showed a poor performance on Obama’s half but a strong performance for Romney.  In the poll, 72% thought Romney did better than Obama.  Before the debate, polls showed that Obama was leading Romney by over 12% in Michigan.  After the debate, the polls showed that Obama was now leading Romney by only 3% in Michigan.  With this outcome, Michigan was no longer seen as a democratic state.  Michigan is now seen as a swing state, in which both candidates can fight for the win.

            This contingency showed to be very important for Romney.  Initially, the

Romney campaign wanted to compete for Michigan.  Romney was raised in Michigan and his father, George Romney, was a governor here.  To try to get Michigan, Romney campaigned and ran television ads in Michigan.  Although he made a continuous effort, the polls kept showing poor results for Romney so it was said that he pretty much gave up on Michigan.  With the newest poll, in which Romney is now only lead by Obama by 3%, the Romney campaign strategy could show a change. 

            The answer to my question was contingency.  The outcome of this election, and more importantly in Michigan, will be impacted by every voter.  With the new polls, both candidates have an equal shot to win over Michigan and both will try to do so.  So I guess my point is, GO VOTE!